Fantasy Fallout: How High Does Alvin Kamara’s Value Now Rise?

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

The knee jerk reaction is going to be to rush to the waiver wire to add Alvin Kamara, as the trade of Adrian Peterson helps to clear the log jam in New Orleans.  Of course it’s not like Peterson was making an extremely big impact, never being given more than 9 carries in a game and averaging 3.0 yards/carry.  Will some of those carries go to Kamara?  It’s possible, but we’re still not talking about a significant role in that aspect of the game.  Look at his rushing performance thus far:

  • Week 1 – 7 carries for 18 yards
  • Week 2 – 1 carry for 3 yards
  • Week 3 – 2 carries for 37 yards and 1 TD
  • Week 4 – 5 carries for 25 yards

So even if he were to absorb the 5-6 carries Peterson was getting, we are probably talking 6-8 carries per week.  That’s not a given, though, as Mark Ingram is going to continue to dominate the early down carries and take on at least some of them.

It’s in the passing game where Kamara is going to make his mark.  In Week 4 he racked up 10 catches for 71 yards and a TD, and he’s averaging 5 receptions and 7 targets per game.  The presence or absence of Peterson isn’t going to change his role there.

So he was averaging roughly 9 touches per game, while Peterson had 7.25.  It would be fair to expect an increase for the rookie, so we’d probably be looking at averaging 12 touches per contest (anywhere from 10-14 per week is a fair assumption).  The question really is if the Saints believe he can hold up to anything more than that (he’s listed at 5’10” and 214 lbs.).  As NFL.com noted in their pre-draft scouting report:

“While he has never logged 20 carries in a single game, he has the talent to play on all three downs if he can prove his durability.”

That’s going to put him into the range of other PPR favorites, like Chris Thompson, Duke Johnson and James White.  That puts him as a potential RB2/good FLEX play, but pushing him further than that quite yet would be a mistake.  He has more upside, and is worth owning, but value him accordingly in the short-term until we see how things play out.

Sources – ESPN, NFL.com

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