by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
Just hours before the start of Week 11 I know many people have questions running through their heads. Who should I start? Who should I sit? Let’s take a look at how some of the recent news changes things:
Sterling Shepard – Wide Receiver – New York Giants
Any time a player is added to the injury report late in the week there is tremendous skepticism, though “illness” doesn’t generate the same concerns. However, according to Adam Schefter (via Twitter) the news doesn’t appear good for Shepard:
“Giants’ WR Sterling Shepard, added to team’s injury report Saturday with illness, is unlikely to play vs Chiefs, per source. But team wants to first test him in pre-game warmups before making any determination.”
It’s an extremely favorable matchup and the Giants have few viable alternatives on the outside (TE Evan Engram would likely be a target monster if Shepard sits, and would be a must play). Luckily the Giants play at 1 PM, so we’ll get clarity early in the day, but for now plan for an alternative.
Verdict – Usable if he plays, but plan to be without him
Jamaal Williams – Running Back – Green Bay Packers
Both Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones are out for Week 11, leaving Williams to carry the load in the Green Bay backfield. He had 20 carries last week after the injuries struck, though the production wasn’t there (3.4 yards/carry). With a week to plan and prepare it’s likely that the Packers utilize Devante Mays and Aaron Ripkowski as at least change-of-pace options, and that could limit Williams’ touches a little bit.
The Ravens have allowed the third most rushing yards to opposing backs (997), so even if it’s only 12-15 touches the upside is going to be there. He should be a locked in RB2 in all formats, though given his struggles last week there’s a bit of risk.
Verdict – Viable RB2
Leonard Fournette – Running Back – Jacksonville Jaguars
Depending on Fournette is starting to become difficult, though Ian Rapoport tweeted this morning
“After not practicing Friday,
#Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette is questionable & will have a pre-game evaluation to determine whether he plays. The team is optimistic that he will, I’m told.”
If he does play, though, you have to wonder if he will be limited in any way. With Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon behind him, his touches could easily be limited. If he dresses the upside is there and he’s worth gambling on as a FLEX, depending on your alternatives, but there’s obvious risk.
Verdict – Risky FLEX play, but monitor the news
Alex Collins – Running Back – Baltimore Ravens
Collins has been operating as the lead back for the Ravens, but things are about to get crowded. Both Danny Woodhead and Terrance West are expected to return, joining Collins and Javorius Allen in what could deteriorate into a four-headed mess. This tweet from Jeff Zrebiec could help ease some concerns:
“Mornhinweg said that Alex Collins will remain Ravens featured back even with Terrance West and Danny Woodhead returns”
That said “lead” back is subjective and it’s hard to imagine him getting 15+ touches. His role could be game flow dependent, and that makes him a risky proposition.
Verdict – Viable FLEX, but nothing more
Tevin Coleman – Running Back – Atlanta Falcons
Devonta Freeman has been ruled out due to a concussion, leaving Coleman to operate as the lead back against the Seahawks. We love the potential workload, but while the Seahawks aren’t the same defense that they once were they are still allowing the fifth fewest points to opposing running backs. It’s in the secondary where they’re banged up and against opposing wide receivers that they’ve struggled. With that in mind, would it be surprising if the offense is centered around Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and company? While Coleman does hold appeal there’s reason to believe that his upside is capped. Utilize him as a RB2, but don’t enter the week expecting more than that.
Verdict – Risky, but solid, RB2
Larry Fitzgerald – Wide Receiver – Arizona Cardinals
As if the downgrade from Carson Palmer to Drew Stanton wasn’t enough, now it will be Blaine Gabbert under center for the Arizona Cardinals. Or is that really a negative, especially for Fitzgerald? Over the past two weeks Stanton had completed 50.6% of his passes overall, but he targeted Fitzgerald early and often (23 targets). We’d expect the same usage regardless of who the quarterback is, as the Cardinals try to offset questionable ability by letting their best player make as many plays as possible.
Considering the matchup against Houston, who is allowing the second most points per week to opposing wide receivers (behind only the Chiefs), and that Gabbert may not be a downgrade and is there any reason to be concerned?
Verdict – Continue firing Fitzgerald up as a WR1
Damien Williams/Kenyon Drake – Running Back – Miami Dolphins
According to Adam Beasley of The Miami Herald (via Twitter):
Clyde Christensen said that despite Drake’s penchant for big plays, the formula is going to stay the same.
Over the past two weeks that led to the following in terms of touches:
- Damien Williams – 24 touches (16 carries, 8 receptions)
- Kenyon Drake – 24 touches (16 carries, 8 receptions)
Drake has been far more productive, though of his 151 rushing yards 108 came on two big runs. That puts him as a very big boom or bust play, since it’s impossible to depend on a 40+ yard run every week. Tampa Bay has allowed eight runs of 20+ yards, tied for sixth most in the league, but that still doesn’t guarantee it. Drake is the better play in this committee, but his value is still capped.
Verdict – Drake stronger play, but neither more than a FLEX
Phillip Rivers – Quarterback – Los Angeles Chargers
After suffering from a concussion there were questions of his availability, but it was revealed on Friday that he had already cleared the protocol and was set to play against the Bills. Buffalo has allowed the fifth fewest points per week to opposing quarterbacks, with just 7 TD vs. 11 INT. Rivers has struggled as well, completing less than 60% of his passes in six of his past seven games and has been at 235 yards or fewer in each of his past three. In shallower formats he’s impossible to trust, and even in two-quarterback leagues he’s a borderline option.
Verdict – Must sit in one-quarterback formats, desperation play in deeper leagues
Alshon Jeffery – Wide Receiver – Philadelphia Eagles
He plays on Sunday night and found his name on the injury report late in the week, which never is a good sign. That alone would put a red flag on him, and the idea of Jay Ajayi playing a bigger role hurts a little bit more. That said all expectations are that Jeffery is going to play in what is a favorable matchup against the Cowboys. Jeffery has also seen his production rise in recent weeks, heading into Philadelphia’s bye, with 3 TD over his two games heading into the bye week. There’s a bit of risk involved, but as a WR2 he’s well worth using.
Verdict – Solid WR2 option
Bruce Ellington – Wide Receiver – Houston Texans
Everything appears to be slanting into Ellington’s favor given these two pieces of news:
- Will Fuller has already been ruled out
- Reports have Patrick Peterson shadowing DeAndre Hopkins
The Arizona Cardinals have allowed the sixth most points per week to opposing wide receivers, so the opportunities will be there. With Ellington as the clear second option, it’s a perfect situation. He’s been targeted 17 times over the past two weeks, and with those opportunities in this matchup he has the potential to post big numbers.
Verdict – Must use WR3 with WR2 upside
Vernon Davis – Tight End – Washington Redskins
Jordan Reed has already been ruled out for today’s game against the New Orleans Saints, leaving Davis to operate as the team’s top tight end. Over the past two weeks, with Reed on the sidelines, Davis has generated 20 targets and turned them into 13 receptions and 148 yards. While we’d all love to see a TD, no one is going to complain about that type of production or workload. Considering the questions around the position, it’s more than enough to utilize him as a TE1.
Verdict – Must use TE1
Charles Clay – Tight End – Buffalo Bills
People like to point to Clay as a potential option, but there are a lot of factors working against him:
- A rookie quarterback, whose production is a complete mystery
- A questionable tag (and there’s no guarantee that he plays as Adam Schefter tweeted this morning that, “Bills uncertain whether TE Charles Clay and WR Jordan Matthews, both questionable for Sunday, can play vs. Chargers, per source. Team wants to test them pregame before it decides.”)
- Only eclipsing 55 yards in one of his six games played
- A matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed the second fewest points per week to opposing tight ends
In other words, is he worth the risk?
Verdict – Borderline TE2, but better left on the bench
Eddie Lacy – Running Back – Seattle Seahawks
After missing Week 10 Lacy was not listed on the Seahawks’ final injury report and is ready to suit up for the Week 11 matchup against the Falcons. Of course Lacy is no guarantee to get the bulk of the touches, as he is an unproductive piece (2.7 yards per carry) of a completely unproductive backfield. He just muddies the waters a little bit more, but isn’t a player to trust.
Verdict – Desperation FLEX play
Sources – NFL.com, ESPN
Make sure to check out all of our Week 11 rankings: