Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: Week 4

Trying to decide who you should start or sit this week?  Let’s take a look at a few potential decisions owners have and try to sort through them:

Start – Kyle Orton – Denver Broncos – at Tennesse
Sit – Donovan McNabb – Washington Redskins – at Philadelphia

It should seem like a no-brainer to start Orton at this point, shouldn’t it?  However, he’s only owned in 70% of Yahoo leagues and 58.5% of ESPN leagues.  While he may have a tougher matchup with the Titans, he has been on an amazing roll to open the season.  Through three games he has already thrown for 1,078 yards, with games of 295, 307 and 476.  While you never know which Broncos receiver is going to have the biggest day, devaluing them as a whole, Orton should continue to produce.  After Eli Manning threw for 386 yards in Week 3, Orton could certainly be in store for a solid day.

Donovan McNabb gets his first shot at his former team, going to Philadelphia in Week 4.  There are going to be a lot of emotions involved, but in one-quarterback formats it is tough to trust him.  The Eagles have allowed just 183.3 yards per game through the air and are tied for second in the league with five interceptions.  They also come after the quarterback hard, with 11 sacks.  While McNabb has generated a rapport with Santana Moss, the running game hasn’t done enough to keep the Eagles defense of balance.  Emotion could help drive him, but it’s still hard to trust him.

Start – Peyton Hillis – Cleveland Browns – vs. Cincinnati
Sit – Jonathan Stewart – Carolina Panthers – at New Orleans

It seems amazing that just over a week ago we were having a discussion as to which Carolina running back would have more value in 2010.  Who would’ve thought that three weeks into the season the answer would be neither?  Through three weeks Jonathan Stewart has gotten just 21 carries for 68 yards and 1 TD.  That’s a far cry from his 2009 campaign when he rushed for 1,133 yards and 10 TD, averaging 5.1 yards per carry (this season he’s at 3.2 yards per carry).  While the Saints rushing defense hasn’t been good, Stewart hasn’t seen more then eight carries in a game.  It’s just impossible to depend on him until he proves that he can make an impact.

Hillis, meanwhile, took on a tough Ravens defense in Week 3 and simply ran roughshod over it.  He went for 144 yards on 22 carries, with Jerome Harrison out due to injury.  He has actually scored in each of the first three games, averaging 5.6 yards per carry.  Eric Mangini may often be unpredictable, but it’s hard to imagine Hillis not taking over lead back duties for now.  While that doesn’t mean Harrison isn’t going to get touches, you would think Hillis would get the lion’s share.  Couple that with his nose for the end zone and it’s hard to leave him on your bench.

Start – Brandon Jackson – Green Bay Packers – vs. Detroit
Sit – Shonn Greene – New York Jets – at Buffalo

This is the second consecutive week that Greene finds himself in this column, but considering how highly drafted he was it is worth beating the point home.  Many considered him a borderline first round pick prior to the season, but now he is clearly the #2 running back behind LaDanian Tomlinson.  According to the Newark Star-Ledger, Greene actually played just 17 snaps on Sunday night, compared to 42 for Tomlinson.  For the season Greene has 106 yards on 30 carries vs. 208 yards on 37 carries for Tomlinson.  Who appears to be getting the job done?  Until Greene is able to overtake Tomlinson and start bringing positive results, he should be on your bench.

I know there are concerns about Jackson sharing carries with John Kuhn and not being the “main” back, but he has an extremely favorable matchup with the Lions.  Detroit has been the worst rushing team in the league, allowing 148.7 yards per game.  Even if he shares carries and gets a limited workload, it should be a productive day.

(Three Wide Receiver Formats)
Start – Mario Manningham – New York Giants – vs. Chicago
Sit – Pierre Garcon – Indianapolis Colts – at Jacksonville

Manningham is the third receiver on the Giants, but the team’s big play receiver has managed at least 75 yards in each of the team’s first three games (14 receptions, 238 yards, 1 TD).  The Giants-Bears game could easily breakdown into a shootout and with the Bears allowing 279.3 passing yards per game Manningham should once again produce.

Garcon, meanwhile, has been somewhat ineffective.  He missed Week 3 due to injury and has managed just 4 receptions for 54 yards and 0 TD.  Austin Collie has clearly passed him on the depth chart and while Jacksonville is weak against the pass, even if Garcon plays the ball could go to Collie, Reggie Wayne & Dallas Clark ahead of him.

(Two Wide Receiver Formats)
Start – Malcolm Floyd – San Diego Chargers – vs. Arizona
Sit – Mike Sims-Walker – Jacksonville Jaguars – vs. Indianapolis

Floyd has scored in back-to-back weeks, as well as getting at least 95 yards in each game.  With Phillip Rivers throwing him the ball, there’s no reason to think that he’s not going to deliver yet again.

Sims-Walker has simply become too big of a wild card to trust.  He’s had two complete busts (2 catches, 34 yards, 0 TD) sandwiching a top performance (10 catches, 105 yards, 1 TD).  You just don’t know what you are going to get from David Garrard and the Colts have shown that you can thrash them on the ground.  In smaller formats, I’d avoid him.

What are your thoughts on these decisions?  Who would you start?  Who would you sit?

Make sure to check out the rest of our Week 4 Rankings:

    Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: Week 5
    Fantasy Football Week 3: Sunday Morning Start or Sit Thoughts

    25 comments

    1. Nick Tenaglia says:

      How about a Start/Sit for TEs?

      Start: Aaron Hernandez @ Miami
      Sit: Brent Celek vs Washington

      Celek is currently being started by over 77% of ESPN Leagues and he is facing the 8th Ranked Defense versus Tight-Ends. He is average 3 catches and 34 yards per game, with no TDs. And with Vick out there slinging the ball downfield, and using his feet as his safety valve rather than the Tight-End, things don’t look good for Celek.
      Hernandez is currently owned by less than 24% of ESPN leagues and he is being started in only 9% of them. Miami, according to ESPN, ranks 29th in Defense against the Tight-End. After seeing what Dustin Keller was able to do, its very plausible that Hernandez, a player with similar physical attributes, will replicate that performance. Despite Hernandez’s lack of TDs through 3 games, he still has 13 catches for 211 yds (and a 13 yd rush!), meaning that he will always be a safe bet to produce solid yardage numbers and the TDs should come at some point. Once those TDs start to roll in, he should certainly be a trustworthy TE1

    2. Jaymz says:

      I don’t have much faith left in MJD. Especially with no passing game and a weak offensive line. Am I crazy for concidering starting Mike Tolbert or Ronnie Brown this week?

    3. admin says:

      Nick, not a bad call at all. It’ll be interesting to see where the two TEs fall on my rankings (which will be posted tomorrow), but I agree that Hernandez certainly is a startable option this week.

      Jaymz, I think so. Ryan Mathews looks like he’s going to play, so Tolbert’s value is not that high. Brown is going to make some plays, but I’m not writing off MJD yet. He’s too good of a player to have on your bench against a weak Indianapolis rushing defense.

    4. My guy says McNabb performs well in his return to Philly.

    5. mogli says:

      Hi i need to know which WR to start this week. My WR are
      Welker, reggie wayne, mark clayton, steve smith (NYG),louis murphy. i can start Three WR and other one gonna be WR/RB/T. basically i can start 4 WR since my RB SUCK big time. Do u i think i should purpose a trade for Peterson for REGGIE AND Dustin keller or if u have any trade option that will be awesome THX ALOT.

    6. mogli says:

      OR SHOULD I GO FOR MARK CLAYTON AND DUSTIN KELLER FOR PETERSON. SORRY I FORGOT TO ADD TAHT. BUT I DOTN THINK I WILLL GET PETERSON FOR CLAYTON AND KELLER and i dont wannna propose a stupid trade. micheal turner and BIG ben for reggie and mcnabb. let me kno . plz

    7. kyle says:

      Need help this week my line up is really thin which 2 would u start…….Tim hightower, deon branch, lee evans, demyrius Thomas, devin hester, or devone bess

    8. admin says:

      Tough call there. Hightower is likely going to play second fiddle to Beanie Wells, but as the one RB in the group, I’d probably play him. He has the upside to deliver some points. For the second player, I’d go Bess. New England does not have a great defensive secondary and if they try to focus their efforts on stopping Brandon Marshall, Bess could really step up and deliver.

    9. Sarah Bobs says:

      Santana Moss or Malcom Floyd?
      Floyd’s been doing me no wrong these past few weeks but Moss is projected with two more points and it may just come down to that… what do you you say??

      Ravens or Seahawks D?
      I picked up the Seahawks as the Ravens have been killing me and are playing the Steelers this week. Seahawks looked great against the Chargers last week but crap at Denver. Can they only play well at home?

    10. admin says:

      I have Moss and Floyd back-to-back on my rankings, so it really is more of a coin flip. I have Moss ahead, but it could go either way.

      As for the defense, I’d still go Ravens. They are the better team and you have to think that they can shut down Charlie Batch.

    11. Tim says:

      Do I start Rice vs Pitt or Bradshaw vs Chicago?

    12. matt says:

      I am in a 16 team league and we start 1 rd, 2 wrs, 1 te, and 2 flexes who would u go with I have (S.Jax/K.Darby), Forte, Fitzgerald, Braylon, Josh Morgan, Justin Forsett, and Mike Thomas

      my thought would be S.Jax or Darby, Forte, Forsett, Braylon, and Fitz

    13. Dean says:

      Should I start Beanie Wells or Justin Forsett for my RB2?

    14. Not sure who to start this week for a tight end: Vernon Davis (s.f.) or Tony Gonzales (atlanta)

    15. admin says:

      Let’s knock everyone Q’s out one at a time:

      Tim – I know the matchup stinks for Rice, but he has actually had success against Pittsburgh in the past (310 total yards against them in 2009). He’s too good to sit anyways, as long as he’s playing.

      matt – I’d def play Jackson/Forte/Braylon/Fitz. The final spot probably goes to Forsett, just because he should have more of an opportunity to perform. I’d agree with your picks.

      Dean – Even though he shares carries, Wells is the more explosive back and already may have assumed the bulk of the role in Arizona. He has more upside then Forsett, so he’d be my pick.

      Beverly – That’s a tough one, because both are elite TE. I like Davis’ matchup better, so I’d go with him, despite the offensive struggles SF has had.

    16. Josh says:

      I have an offer from last week or maybe even 2 ago. His Braylon Edwards for my Vincent Jackson. I don’t know if I should accept it or not I’ve held onto VJ since draft day, but my receiving is hurting. Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith (car), and just picked up Demaryius Thomas. Should I take Braylon for Vick and drop Thomas?

    17. Mike says:

      Please help. I’m 0-3 on the season so far and need a win. Please advise on who to start in week #4:

      1. QB’s = McNabb or Bradford?

      2. With Steven Jackson injured I may need to start one of the following. Who do you see having the best game (ppr league)
      -Maroney or Green-Ellis?

      Thanks!!

    18. admin says:

      Josh – It doesn’t seem likely that V-Jax is going to play, so getting anything for him is probably a home runs. Still, Edwards is not going to have much value, especially with Santonio Holmes close to returning. Do you have any other WR on your bench?

      Mike – For the QB, it’s McNabb all the way. As for the RB, I’d go Green-Ellis. He showed last week that he can be productive in the Patriots offense and, as long as Fred Taylor is out, he should be the more valuable option.

    19. Cain says:

      Need some help deciding what to do with Pierre Garcon. From the looks of it, he will miss yet another week and with Collie going on a rampage, it’s possible Garcon might not even get that many targets when he’s back healthy.

      Santonio Holmes, on the other hand is sitting in my Free Agent pool, and he just so happens to be back next week. While I still don’t trust NYJ, and they don’t have the QB and offense that Indy does, would it be a wise move to swap Garcon for Holmes before week 4 ends?

      I am sure somebody will throw their waiver claim for Holmes during the waiver period after Monday, so I suppose it’s now or never to pick him up. Thanks in advance!

    20. admin says:

      That’s a realy tough call. How deep of a league is it? I’m in a 10-team league where someone just dropped Garcon and I happily scooped him up. I know things have been slow, and the injuries have been there, but in that offense I still hold out hope that he’s going to be able to become usable again in time. Depending on your WR situation, I do think he’s worth waiting for.

      However, Holmes is going to be the top receiver in NY, in time. Is that really enough? I know Sanchez has been good of late, but is it enough to trust him long-term?

      I think a lot of this decision depends on the rest of your roster and your league. What other WR do you have and what is the setup? Do you play 2 or 3 WR?

    21. Dave says:

      Need some help picking what RB’s to start this week. I can start three out of these five players MJD,Forsett,Eills,Mc Fadden,Bradshaw ?

    22. Cain says:

      Thanks for the reply! I’m in a 10 team league and we start 3 WR’s. Currently I’m rolling with R.Moss, Knox, Harvin, and Mike Wallace. Garcon is my WR5 more or less.

      Setup is standard 1pt per 10 rec and 6 per TD.

      Garcon can be explosive, but with Collie going crazy and Holmes likely to secure the WR1 spot on the Jets (however good that may be…), just worried if Holmes goes on a tear and Garcon can’t get targets. Tough call definitely.

    23. admin says:

      Dave – For me it’s MJD, McFadden & Bradshaw (Forsett & Green-Ellis are still pretty unpredictable)

      Cain – As a fifth WR, you really can’t go wrong with either, but I’d say (and it surprises me) I’d rather have a team’s WR1. In that situation, I’d probably go with Holmes, but it really is a coin flip. Prior to the season I would’ve said Garcon, but his early season struggles/injury have caused him to fall tremendously. Still, there’s potential there due to the offense. Like I said, it’s a complete coin flip, but I’d go Holmes at this point.

    24. Josh says:

      I need to know who to start I have 3 WR spots and a flex WR/RB These are my WR’s santana moss, mark clayton, Brandon Marshall, Malcom Floyd, and louis Murphy Now the RB I have for flex are Justin forsett, johnthan stewart, and Mike tolbert. Which of these guys should I start? I wes thinking Clayton, Floyd, Marshall, and Murphy But i wonder with murphy being injured should I start him instead of forsett or Moss Please Help?

    25. admin says:

      Josh, of the WR I would go with Marshall for sure. It’s funny, because I have Moss, Floyd & Clayton all in a row (in that order) in my rankings, so it really could go either way with any of them.

      Generally, I would lean towards a RB as my FLEX, and of the three you have I would lean towards Stewart or Forsett (they are also close in my rankings), but Stewart has been bad. It really is a tough call between Stewart and one of the WR for me.

      Honestly, though, they all should be close (including Forsett) and it’s almost a coin flip. I would say go with your gut in the end, but if it were me I would go Marshall/Moss/Floyd and Stewart at the FLEX. But again, go with your gut, because they are all close.

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