Target Practice: Looking For Value From Last Season’s Top 20 Targeted Receivers

Obviously things change from year-to-year, but let’s take a look at the Top 20 receivers by targets from 2010 to help get an idea of where there is potential value for the coming season:

1. Roddy White – Atlanta Falcons – 179
2. Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals – 174
3. Reggie Wayne – Indianapolis Colts – 173
4. Brandon Lloyd – Denver Broncos – 153
5. Brandon Marshall – Miami Dolphins – 147
6. Santana Moss – Washington Redskins – 146
7. Steve Johnson – Buffalo Bills – 143
8. Terrell Owens – Cincinnati Bengals – 139
9. Andre Johnson – Houston Texans – 138
10. Calvin Johnson – Detroit Lions – 137
11. Marques Colston – New Orleans Saints – 133
12. Dwayne Bowe – Kansas City Chiefs – 132
13t. Jason Witten – Dallas Cowboys – 128
13t. Hakeem Nicks – New York Giants – 128
15t. Chris Cooley – Washington Redskins – 127
15t. Mike Williams – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 127
17t. Chad Ochocino – Cincinnati Bengals – 125
17t. Greg Jennings – Green Bay Packers – 125
17t. Davone Bess – Miami Dolphins – 125
20. Danny Amendola – St. Louis Rams – 123

Thoughts:

  • It’s interesting to see that Roddy White led the league in targets last season (and that there was quite a big divide between the Top 3 targeted receivers and the rest of the league).  It’s probably a safe assumption that White’s targets will decline for the coming year with the addition of Julio Jones and the health of Harry Douglas.  Does that make him any less of an appealing option?  Absolutely not, as having more options that the defense has to pay attention to will only help open things up for White.  The team may not have to force the ball to him anymore, allowing him to convert his targets at a better rate.  He remains among the elite in the game.
  • Terrell Owens, coming off being one of the Top 10 targeted receivers in the league, is still sitting as a free agent.  It will be interesting to see if a receiver needy team gambles on him early on in the year.
  • Speaking of former Bengals’ receivers, don’t look for Ochocinco to get the same amount of targets in a Patriots’ offense that likes to move the ball around.  It’s hard to imagine him getting more looks than Wes Welker (122 targets in ’10), plus you have to expect that their young tight end duo will also get a significant number of targets.  That’s not to say that he isn’t going to be a good option, but make sure to value him accordingly.
  • Santana Moss was one of the most targeted receivers in the league last season, picking up 93 receptions for 1,115 yards and 6 TD.  With a developing ground game you can argue that the Redskins are headed in a different direction.  Of course, you can also argue that John Beck, with his impressive preseason showing, offers more potential upside than Donovan McNabb or Rex Grossman.  With Chris Cooley hurting, there is no question that Moss is going to be the go to receiver and could easily see an equivalent number of targets in 2011.  With that type of potential to produce, he seems like a good buy at his current ADP (78.55 according to Mock Draft Central).
  • We all know the injury concern that Marques Colston brings with him.  That is going to bring his potential value down, no matter how often he was targeted a year ago.
  • Can we expect Greg Jennings to be targeted as often as he was a year ago?  Not likely, given the depth the Packers have on the outside and the return to health of Jermichael Finley.  We’ll be discussing his situation in more detail shortly, so make sure to keep checking back for that.

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8 Responses to Target Practice: Looking For Value From Last Season’s Top 20 Targeted Receivers

  1. Nick Tenaglia says:

    My keeper selection deadline is today…. I need to choose 7, but I am having a tough time deciding which to pick….
    -Its a 10 team Auction league, 22 players rosters
    -We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 3 Flex, 1 TE, 2 DST, 1 K
    -The scoring is basically standard, with bonus options for big games. However, we have implemented a WR/TE Only PPR scoring system (It balances out the importance of the skill players)
    -$200 Budget
    -We get to keep players for a total of 3 years. After 3, they need can no longer be kept at their original price

    So I have 9 or 10 viable options for keepers, and the Top 7 players are obvious. However, 6 of those 7 players are in the last year of their keeper-eligibility – and those guys are looking to get huge price increases.

    Here are my players in the last year:
    Player_____Keeper Price_____Estimated Re-Draft Price
    Aaron Rodgers____$16__________$46
    R Mendenhall______$1___________$38
    Ray Rice__________$8___________$52
    M Turner__________$59____________$37
    DeSean Jackson___$8____________$20
    Miles Austin______$1____________$20
    Jonathan Stewart__$14___________$14

    I also have DMC at $6 for the next 2 years, Mike Williams (TB) at $8 for the next 2 years, and Aaron Hernandez at $1 for the next 2 years.

    So I want to keep all my two year players (DMC, Williams, Hernandez), and having Mendy and Miles Austin at $1 is too hard to pass up, and Ray Rice is a gigantic steal at $8.

    So it basically comes down to this: Do I re-draft Aaron Rodgers at $46 and keep him for the next 3 years at that price? Or do I re-draft DeSean Jackson at $20 and keep him for the next 3 years at that price?

    • Nick Tenaglia says:

      Actually I guess the better question would be do you think Aaron Rodgers auction price will be higher next year than it is this year?

      I don’t think even Peyton Manning, Tom Brady or Drew Bress ever had a price that high as a QB… So maybe it will come down next year… Thoughts?

      • Yea, it’s hard to imagine his price increasing from the $46, especially with the depth at QB this season.

        Are you keeping Michael Turner & Jonathan Stewart at thos prices? I would think that DMC provides significantly better value than both of them…

        • Nick Tenaglia says:

          Turner and J-Stew will not be kept… However I am thinking that I might re-draft them… Turner is a pretty decent option for $37 – even if he only has 1 good season left in him. And J-Stew is already priced at his current level, so I would want to get him back at $14. I believe that by year’s end that he will be the definitive fantasy RB option in Carolina

  2. LouGatsby says:

    I’m in a 12 Team, Standard scoring league. My WR list is as follows..

    WR1 Roddy White
    WR2 Brandon Lloyd

    Subs: Kenny Britt
    Mario Manningham
    Lance Moore

    How do you think my 2011 WR Draft class will fair? Do you think Brandon Lloyd is capable of breaking out again? Do you think Kenny Britt we have the type of break out season is capable of with Hasselbeck at the helm? Thanks.

    • I really like your group. Maybe Lloyd can repeat, maybe he can’t, but having Britt and Manningham as fallback options gives you tremendous depth. One of the three will certainly be worth using.

  3. Somehow I think T.O. will find his way back on a roster when the injury bug hits some team.

  4. LouGatsby says:

    Thanks for the advice.

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