By The Numbers: Week 11: Ray Rice, Rob Gronkowski, Eli Manning & More

There are always some intriguing numbers that helps lead us to our fantasy football decisions. Let’s take a look at some of them for Week 10:

8 = Number of Eli Manning touchdown passes in his last two games vs. Philadelphia
While the Eagles passing defense was supposed to be one of the best in the league, they have had some serious holes this season. They aren’t giving up a ton of yardage (219.6 passing yards per game), but they are tied for the fourth most passing touchdowns allowed at 17. With the level Manning and the Giants offense is playing at he remains a good play in all formats, regardless of the matchup.

13 = The total number of carries Ray Rice has in the Ravens’ last two losses
Over their past four victories Rice is averaging 21 carries per game. Is anyone not expecting him to get significantly more touches this week against the Bengals? Despite Cincinnati allowing the second fewest rushing yards per game (86.8 yards), they have allowed 8 TD. Throw in his potential to produce in the passing game and he remains one of the elite options in the game. It comes down to the game planning and you have to think Baltimore has learned from their mistakes.

19 = The number of targets for Denarius Moore the past two weeks
It’s become extremely evident who Carson Palmer’s go to receiver is, hasn’t it? Over the same period no other Raider has been targeted more than eight times (Jacoby Ford, who has eight targets, is currently injured and not expected to play in Week 11). Against a Vikings’ passing defense allowing the third most yards per game (272.8), as well as 18 TD vs. just 6 INT, look for Moore to thrive once again.

45.8 = Steve Johnson’s average yards per game since Week 4
To make matters worse, over these six games he’s scored just one touchdown. His high over this stretch is 84 yards, the only time he’s exceeded 58 yards, and he’s coming off a two catch, eight yard performance. While the Miami Dolphins’ pass defense has been unimpressive this season it is tough to trust Johnson heading into Week 11. He’s a WR2, at best, until he proves otherwise, and depending on your other options he easily could find a spot on your bench.

70 = Fred Davis’ total number of receiving yards over the past two week
That came against the 49ers and Dolphins, both of whom are in the bottom eight of the league in passing defense. This week he draws a tougher defense in the Cowboys, a team he has a total of 5 receptions for 76 yards against in his past five games against. He has the upside that keeps him usable, but it is tough to consider him a must use option.

137 = Beanie Wells total number of rushing yards four career games against the 49ers
Only once has he had more than 7 carries or 29 yards (Week 14 of 2009) against San Francisco. This season the 49ers are the best rushing defense in the league and Wells is dealing with a knee injury. It’s hard to consider him anything more than a FLEX option for Week 11.

308 = Total receiving yards for Rob Gronkowski over past three weeks
He has quickly emerged as one of, if not the elite tight end in the game, hasn’t he? It doesn’t matter who the opponent is or what other receiving options the team has, he just produces week in and week out. He had one poor two week stretch (46 total yards in Week 4 & 5), otherwise he has at least 74 yards in every game. With three games of two touchdowns, it’s impossible not to like him.

Make sure to check out the rest of our Week 11 articles:

By The Numbers: Week 12: Matt Ryan, Cedric Benson, Victor Cruz & More
By The Numbers: Week 10: Frank Gore, Tom Brady, Chris Johnson & More

3 comments

  1. Randy says:

    You’ve given some great advice to me since I’ve discovered this site, so I thought I’d go back to the well again!

    Would you start Fred Davis or Celek? I’m afraid that defenses are trying to take away Davis since he’s the only show in town, but I don’t want to overthink it either.

    Also, for ROS in a standard league, how would you rank Harvin, Bennett, and Jacoby Ford? I currently have the latter two, but Harvin is out there.

    Lastly, I have been lacking a quality 3rd option at RB since Jahvid Best got hurt. I still have him, in addition to Foster, Murray, Felix, and Jonathan Stewart. Would you consider dropping Best, or perhaps Celek (backup TE), to take a flier on someone with potential opportunity (e.g. Kevin Smith, Tashard Choice) or strong upside should an injury strike (e.g. CJ Spiller, Bernard Scott)? Or, would you consider any trades… Maybe try to get someone for Felix (like a Kendall Hunter). Or, should I try to get Ben Tate as a handcuff to Foster. I know these ideas are all over the board, but I’m just curious what you’d do in my situation.

    Thanks!!

  2. Randy says:

    P.S. Just to give some perspective on my question above, I have to win out to have a shot at the playoffs. I’m in a 12-team, standard league: My offensive roster consists of Romo/Palmer, the RBs mentioned earlier, Fitzgerald/Lloyd/Ford/Bennett, and Fred Davis/Celek.

    • Let’s take these one at a time:

      I can see the injuries to Vick & Maclin helping Celek produce significantly better. It’s not an outrageous decision to go with Celek, especially with Davis having struggled, so go with your gut. I think Davis does have the slightly higher upside, however.

      As for the WR:
      1) Harvin
      2) Bennett
      3) Ford (the injury is an issue)
      It’s very subjective, though, and will probably be shuffled on a week-to-week basis.

      For the RB it’s really hard to say. I wouldn’t drop Best quite yet. I could see trying to acquire Tate or Hunter, but I have a feeling the cost would be a lot more than Felix Jones. Reach out and see, but don’t be surprised if someone is asking for a lot. I don’t think Stewart is an awful RB3 and Jones has the same type of potential injury replacement value as some of the others you named. If you want to switch him out for someone else, I could see it, though. It wouldn’t shock me if Cincinnati tries to get a feel for what they have in Bernard Scott…

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