Isaac Redman has definitely become one of the “in” picks as fantasy owners prepare for draft day, hasn’t he? It makes sense, with Rashard Mendenhall out at least the first few weeks of the season. However, have fantasy owners taking things to an extreme?
According to Mock Draft Central, Redman currently has an ADP of 37.71 (the 22nd running back being selected). Considering that he’s not a lock to hold a starting job all year long, does it really make sense to be selecting him in the late third round or early fourth round ahead of someone like BenJarvus Green-Ellis (ADP of 55.48)?
For a player who has been in the league for three seasons, it’s not like Redman has shown us enough to get that excited. In 33 games he has rushed the ball 162 times for 726 yards (4.5 yards/carry) and 3 TD.
The yards per carry is solid, but can we really say for certain that he is going to be able to maintain it over the long haul? He’s had at least 15 carries in a game three times in his career, all coming last season:
- Week 5 vs. Tennessee – 15 carries for 49 yards
- Week 17 at Cleveland – 19 carries for 92 yards and 1 TD
- Playoff game at Denver – 17 carries for 121 yards
Yes, his two biggest games are the freshest in our memory, but is that really enough to justify such a high draft spot?
He is likely going to share time with Jonathan Dwyer from Week 1, who has looked explosive this preseason (10 carries for 83 yards). Granted, most teams utilize multiple back systems, but Redman is currently being drafted almost like he is a lead back and that is far from the case.
If that wasn’t enough, exactly what happens when Mendenhall is ready to play come October? While there is no telling how he is going to recover from his knee injury, you would have to think that he is also going to be in the mix for carries. While he is not going to be the workhorse he once was (324 carries in 2010), would it really be surprising to see the team split the carries fairly evenly most weeks and riding the hot hand in others?
If this was an old time Steelers team that would try to run the ball down your throat, that’s fine. However, this isn’t that team. They are going to throw the ball led by Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders and Mike Wallace (once he signs). That means there are only going to be so many carries to go around.
Would the team running the ball around 30 times per game be unreasonable? When everyone is healthy, do we really think Redman is going to get more than 10-15 of those in most weeks come October? The truth is, he may not even get that many
In other words, he is definitely being overdrafted at this point. Yes, there is potential but the risk far outweighs the reward. In the third or fourth round, I would definitely be passing.
Make sure to check out our 2012 fantasy football rankings: