Rotoprofessor Challenge: First Round Analysis

Last week, we held the draft for this year’s Rotoprofessor Challenge league, which we will be covering extensively here on the site so other owners can see both the good and bad moves made and learn from others mistakes.  It’s a solid mix of guys who certainly know football, though that doesn’t mean that there weren’t a few surprises along the way. 

It started right from the start, so let’s get down to it and take a look at the first round selections:

1. Geckos – Matt Forte
I know this is the in vogue pick this season and he’s flying up draft boards, but there’s no way I can see selecting him with the first overall pick.  While he has plenty of upside, as we’ve discussed before, there are way too many risks in taking him with the first overall pick.  We’ll see if it pans out, but this is certainly not a pick I’d endorse, especially in a non-PPR league.

2. CP – Adrian Peterson
Talk about a gift.  He should be the first overall pick and he simply fell in his lap.  Talk about your no-brainer.

3. I’m So Paid – Brian Westbrook
Two out of the first three picks were clearly oddities to me.  Like forte, if this had been a PPR league, then maybe I could buy this pick a little bit more.  I had him ranked as the #10 ranked running back and he currently has an ADP of 13.41 according to Mock Draft Central (with him being selected only as high as fifth).  With his injury risk he’s a borderline first round pick, so I’d consider him towards the end of the first round, but more likely the beginning of the second.  Even if it pans out, there’s just too much risk to be selecting him this high.

4. Show me the Money – Michael Turner
Now we have things back on track.  I had him ranked as my #2 running back, and this is certainly another gift. 

5. agent ile – Maurice Jones-Drew
He’s a risk, but a solid pick at this point nonetheless.  I’ve spoken about him before (which you can read by clicking here), so I won’t go into much detail on him once again.

6. Lester – LaDanian Tomlinson
Ryan Lester, our friend from www.lesterslegends.com joined us and certainly got his draft off to a solid start.  Talk about him being on the decline all you want, but when a down season leads to over 1,500 total yards, you can sign me up right now. 

7. AU Eagles – Steven Jackson
His ADP is actually 6.08, so this is right on.  I could see starting to entertain the idea of Larry Fitzgerald, the top WR on the board, as opposed to a borderline RB, but this pick is a solid one.  He’s going to be the team’s offense, as we’ve said before, so he should be inline for a big season if he stays healthy.

8. Big Fan – Steve Slaton
Maybe it’s a little bit early, but it’s not a pick you can argue with.  I had him as my eleventh best RB on the board, though his ADP is 9.94.  You are really splitting hairs when you talk about this group of backs and it is a preference selection.  I wouldn’t have taken him here, but I can’t argue with the pick either.

9. Peterson’s Peeps – Frank Gore
Like I said with Slaton, you’re splitting hairs.  The only RB on the board that I had ranked higher was Clinton Portis (who went with the first pick in the second round), so there’s nothing wrong with this one.

10. Rotoprofessor – Larry Fitzgerald
The top WR on the board, I decided to go with him instead of one of the multitude of RB who had some questions surrounding them.  When I ranked the first round I actually had him going sixth (his ADP is 7.73), so I love the value I got with this pick.

11. Mose U Over – Andre Johnson
He’s the second best WR in the league and deserving of going in the first round, so this is the perfect selection. 

12. + Rock Star + – Brandon Jacobs
The last real shocking pick of the first round, I had him ranked as the fourteenth best back and he currently has an ADP of 16.75.  I know we should keep in mind that Clinton Portis was the next selection, which may have been the more attractive pick, but even then I think this is a little bit too early for Jacobs.  I would have much preferred someone like Drew Brees or Chris Johnson, both of who I thought belonged in the first round, or even Marion Barber, Ryan Grant or DeAngelo Williams, all of whom I had ranked above Jacobs on my RB list.  He could be solid, but we all know he’s going to be sharing carries and is not a tremendous receiving option, significantly limiting his value.

So, there you have the first round of the Rotoprofessor Challenge draft.  What are your thoughts?  What was the best pick?  What was the worst?

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4 comments

  1. Best pick was AP at #2. Worst pick was Westy at #3. Pretty solid first round.

  2. I am not as high on Peterson as most are. It is actually pretty rare for a RB to rush for over 1500 yards two seasons in a row and extremely rare to see near 1700 twice in a row. Odds are he will drop down to at least the 1500 range and since he does not get many reception yards, he is not the sure fire #1 in my eyes.

    My favorite pick is Tomlinson at #6. I really think he wil have a bounce back year now that he is healthy again. If he doesnt he is still a top ten back, but if he does bounce back? #1 easily.

  3. Matt Soltysiak says:

    The guys drafting at #2 and #4 were both given nice gifts with Peterson and Turner at those spots. I agree Westbrook went way too early- especially with his injury concerns.

    Jackson and Tomlinson went right where they should have gone, maybe one pick later because of the Westbrook pick. I really think if you are drafting 8 through 10 you are kind of in No Man’s land.

    There are a few backs to debate between or you can be the first guy to take a receiver or quarterback. Slaton is young and healthy, Gore could bounce back this year. Portis is intriguing, but getting up there in age.

    I like the move at the bottom of the round though grabbing Portis and Jacobs. Both will give you very solid numbers as long as they stay healthy.

  4. Wes Granger says:

    It was a very interesting first round, that’s for sure. After it started I was wishing I hadn’t drawn such a low pick with 11th! Obviously Forte was the shocker, but now that the Bears have a QB, they’re not going to need to rely as heavily on Forte, so while I’d love to see him repeat or improve on last year (I’m a Bears fan) I just dont see that happening. Westbrook at #3 also a big shocker. When he’s healthy he can easily perform like the #1 overall back, but with a nice rookie on his tails and his injury status, I dont see him being that superstud back. So yes, #2 and #4 picks got gifts. After that, I didnt really see anything too unusual. With a emergence of the RB by Committee, I was expecting to see Fitz go off the board a lot earlier than he did and though maybe he’d land to me at 11, but thanks again Roto! But I can live with Andre J at that pick. This year I’d much rather have a top 2 or 3 WR at the end of the 1st round than some of the RB’s that are available. The Brandon Jacobs at #12 shocked me as well, but when healthy, he’s a beast that can put up some big numbers. Overall, nothing too crazy when you look at everyone that was picked, just some picked “out of order”. The rounds definitely got more interesting though as we went!

    Best Pick: Obviously AP at #2, but that’s an unusual one, so Fitz at #10 for me. Darn you Roto!
    Worst Pick: Westbrook at #3 for sure. Too high a risk for his high reward for me.

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