Waiver Worthy: Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em – Six Week One Standouts At Wide Receiver

by Will Overton

Playing the waiver wire after week one can be a very risky game to play. If you read what Ray wrote over the weekend, and shame on you if you didn’t, you saw his argument for taking a cautious approach to the waiver wire after just one week in the season.

The first week can lead to serious over reactions and serious over reactions can lead to long lasting effects on your fantasy team. There’s a fine line to walk after week one. You don’t want to miss out on this year’s Victor Cruz, but you also don’t want to drop someone like Wes Welker because they had one bad week.

I am going to do my best to help you find out who is worth grabbing and who isn’t. One important rule though is you that drop fringe guys. You don’t drop your fifth or sixth round pick because of one bad week, you drop your 14th round flier who didn’t see the field or ended up buried on the depth chart in week one.

Each week I will focus on the week’s top performers who are free agents in most leagues and give my take on who to buy and who to deny. This week I am going to focus solely on wide receivers who excelled in week one. I don’t need to tell you to grab Alfred Morris, any running back who is a number one is worth owning. And Blaine Gabbert and Mark Sanchez may be a decent backup, but I still can’t see them as anything more until they do it a couple more times.

So here are six strong receiving options and my take on what to do with them:

Dexter McCluster – Kansas City Chiefs: We heard all the hype about Jon Baldwin and his potential as the Chiefs WR2, but it was McCluster who stole the spotlight on week one. The Chiefs have wised up it seems and have turned McCluster into what he should be, a full time slot receiver. McCluster led the team in targets with 10 and had 6 catches for 82 yards. McCluster is small, but he can do some serious damage in the open field. I don’t expect him to be much of a target inside the red zone, but McCluster could easily be the team’s second leading receiver this season and rack up a lot of catches. And he’s bound to break one here and there for a TD.
Verdict: Buy ‘Em

Donald Jones – Buffalo Bills: All preseason the Bills have been searching for a number two wide receiver. David Nelson won the job, but he got hurt in yesterday’s game, and while we don’t know anything definite yet it doesn’t look good. Jones ended up being targeted seven times and ended up with 5 catches for 41 yards and a TD. Jones had success today, but Stevie Johnson wasn’t 100% and he was going against Darrelle Revis, and the Bills were playing from way behind the whole game. Jones is one to watch, but I’m not convinced after this one game that he’s a must add.
Verdict: Deny ‘Em

Stephen Hill – New York Jets: Much like the Bills the Jets have been looking for a number two at wideout and they clearly have found theirs. Hill was targeted more than anyone on the team except for Santonio Holmes at six times. Hill caught 5 balls for 89 yards and a pair of TD’s. The Jets spent much of the second half of the game running the ball to control the clock so the numbers could’ve been even better. The Bills secondary is bad so don’t get your hopes up too high, but at 6’4 Hill is a legitimate red zone threat with a whole lot of upside. And he might just be my favorite buy on this list.
Verdict: Buy ‘Em

Randall Cobb – Green Bay Packers: I’m almost gun shy on any Packers receivers because it’s impossible for them to all get a significant amount of touches each week, no matter how much they throw the ball. But Cobb is building up a solid connection with Aaron Rodgers. Cobb was targeted nine times and caught all nine passes for 77 yards. Jermichael Finley was the only one on the team with more targets. Much like McCluster, Cobb probably won’t rack up the TD’s, but he will break a couple with his big play ability. I think I’d look to McCluster first, but Cobb can be a solid pickup if he maintains this connection with Rodgers.
Verdict: Buy ‘Em

Aldrick Robinson – Washington Redskins: It was quite the debut for Redskins rookie QB, Robert Griffin III. A big part of that success was Aldrick Robinson who had four catches for 52 yards and a TD. Pierre Garcon went down early in the game and Robinson got the chance to shine. However after the game Garcon seemed confident that he’d be fine and play next week. And there is still Santana Moss and Fred Davis in Washington too. Robinson has the chance to be a solid playmaker, but I need to see one more game. If we hear something on Garcon this week that says he won’t be able to go next week than Robinson’s status changes for me, but as of now he’s a deny except in deep leagues where these others guys are owned.
Verdict: Deny ‘Em

Kevin Ogeltree – Dallas Cowboys: Here is the guy who was the talk of the fantasy world after his performance on the big stage last Thursday night. Ogeltree lead the Cowboys led the team with 11 targets and had 8 catches for 114 yards and 2 TD’s. It’s the kind of game that almost makes you feel like you have to grab him. But be warned, it may be a season best game. Jason Witten was banged up, Miles Austin will typically always get more than four targets and teams will be more prepared for Ogeltree going forward. Laurent Robinson proved last season that a WR3 on the Cowboys can have fantasy value, but he’s still the fourth option until we see more evidence. I still say you should grab him if you have a guy to drop, but temper your expectations.
Verdict: Buy ‘Em

What do you think of these six? Who do you buy and who are you denying after one week? And who are the guys on your team your thinking about dropping?

14 comments

  1. Nick Tenaglia says:

    In a .5 pt PPR League, are any of these guys better picks than any of these guys:
    Nate Washington
    Kendall Wright
    Justin Blackmon
    Lance Moore
    Titus Young
    Mike Williams (TB)

    I’m thinking of dropping Williams for McCluster, which isn’t really much of a difference. However, there are keeper implications, which would be more favorable if I had McCluster over Williams.

  2. Will Overton says:

    In a PPR league I can see dropping Mike Williams for Dexter McCluster. Williams should grab a few TD’s, but McCluster looks like he’ll catch a lot of passes in the slot.

    It’s unclear what will happen with Kendall Wright when Kenny Britt comes back, but right now he’s not droppable, especially not in a keeper league.

  3. RT says:

    Will – Would you consider any below to replace for either Mcluster , Alfred Morris or Stephen Hill?

    I currently have:

    Mike Williams – Sounds like could with Mcluster
    Greg Little
    Laurent Robinson
    B Lafell

    Thanks!

  4. Will Overton says:

    I’d actually rather have Mike Williams than Little. I think Morris is someone you should add if you need the RB depth.

    If you don’t need the back than I’d drop Little for McCluster or Hill.

  5. kyle k says:

    Im first on the waiver order I think I’m ok at wr with fritzgerald, v. Jackson, and h. Nicks as starters, L. Robinson, k. Wright, and g. Little on my bench, backs are kinda weak with just forte and sproles as starters, d Tomas, b wells on bench. Was thinking either going after hill or ogeltree, and drop little or should I go after mccluster?

    • Will Overton says:

      Can you play McCluster at RB in your league? Considering your options there I might go with him if you can do that. Otherwise Hill is probably my favorite WR grab.

  6. Jay says:

    drop toby gerhart for alfred morris?

  7. Will Overton says:

    I’d do that. Peterson looks good to go and Morris looks like the primary ball carrier in Washington for the moment.

  8. Andy says:

    I have the #1 waiver. I am considering adding Morris. My RBs are Forte, Lynch, Spiller, Benson and D. Williams. I think I would drop Williams. Should I burn my #1 waiver on this after week one or hang on to it?

  9. Randy says:

    In a standard league, would you drop Sidney Rice for any of these waiver wire receivers? Other players available are Mike Williams, Austin Collie, Danny Amendola, and Michael Crabtree. Thanks!

  10. Will Overton says:

    Andy – I would take Morris. Number one backs don’t come around often, and while I am scared of a RB in Washington, Morris took all the carries last week and looked good doing it.

    Randy – I agree with Thomas that if I picked one up it’d be Crabtree. The two are pretty similar in talent though overall. Really a matter of preference between them. I lean slightly towards Crabtree, but not by much.

  11. Dave says:

    Great article. PPR League (1 pt/rec) should I drop either Titus Young or Danny Amendola for McCluster (he is listed at RB,WR)?

    • I definitely wouldn’t drop Young. While he had a poor Week 1, he has the highest potential for sure.

      Amendola is close to McCluster, in my book, so I would go with your gut. St. Louis is a mess, but I don’t know that we can count on McCluster leading KC in targets most weeks.

      Anyone else you can drop for him, because I am a fan of McCluster at this point

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