by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
Nick Foles is a quarterback I’m about 99.99999% sure I’m not going to own in 2014. It’s not that I believe he isn’t going to be a good option, I just expect him to be overdrafted in the majority of formats based on last season’s success. Given the depth at the position, there just isn’t going to be a reason to reach.
Just to be clear, I expect him to be good but there is little chance that he comes remotely close to his 27-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio. Let’s just put that in a little bit of context. How many QB, year-by-year have thrown at least 27 TD with 10 or fewer INT? Here’s the breakdown over the past four seasons:
- 2010 – 3 (Tom Brady threw 4, Matt Cassel had 7 and Matt Ryan had 9)
- 2011 – 1 (Aaron Rodgers threw 6 INT)
- 2012 – 2 (Aaron Rodgers & Tom Brady each threw 8 INT)
- 2013 – 1 (Foles)
What he did already put him in elite company and the only player who has come close in recent seasons is Tom Brady (who had 36 TD that season). Since 2002 that is the only other example of a QB with as many as 27 TD who threw 5 INT or fewer. Simply, it is impossible to enter 2014 expecting him to come even remotely close. He’s simply going to throw more interceptions, and that is going to hurt his value.
Remember, in December he was averaging 267.4 passing yards per game. Obviously that’s not a bad number, but it also was buoyed by a 428 yard performance. Yet, he was still throwing 2 or 3 TD per game (and his overall total is slanted with a 7 TD performance). This is an offense that is going to run through LeSean McCoy (the Eagles led the league in rushing yards per game) so not only will the interceptions increase, but even if he makes 16 starts he may not exceed his 27 TD from a year ago.
The other major concern is the loss of DeSean Jackson, the Eagles one true weapon to stretch the field. He was the Eagles most targeted receiver, without a viable addition being made to replace him. There’s going to be a lot of pressure on the returning Jeremy Maclin (who missed all of 2013) as well as Riley Cooper to significantly raise their games.
Obviously Darren Sproles helps, but he’s not a deep threat.
Could Zack Ertz emerge? Absolutely, but he’s not going to be Jackson.
It’s a void in the team’s lineup and, while they could fill the role in the draft, there’s still going to be obvious concerns.
You put that all together and there are QB with as much upside, if not more, who are going to be available after Foles comes off the board. Let someone else reach for him as QB is once again very deep. That makes this a risk we shouldn’t be taking.
Source – ESPN