Early ADP Notes: Wide Receiver Edition (Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Rookies & More)

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

Obviously we are in the extremely early stages of the fantasy offseason, so what little data we have is likely skewed (mostly by site’s pre-draft rankings). Still, it’s worth looking at the ADPs in the early going to at least give us some sense of the landscape as it formulates.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at my quick thoughts (all ADP data comes courtesy of fantasypros.com):

 

Demaryius Thomas is the second WR coming off the board
He has Peyton Manning throwing him the football and he clearly is a WR1 in all formats. Still, he plays in an offense with too many other options not to think someone like Dez Bryant or A.J. Green will out produce him. Making matters even worse, Thomas’ overall ADP is 8.5, meaning he’s being selected in the first round. At that spot, I’d much rather take a RB like Doug Martin or maybe even Monte Ball or Zac Stacy, instead taking one of the aforementioned WR in the second round.

It’s not to say that Thomas shouldn’t be the second wide receiver coming off the board, but there’s no reason for him to be selected in the first round.

 

Brandon Marshall is going before Alshon Jeffrey
The baton is clearly being passed and, while Marshall has more of a track record (and back-to-back 100 reception seasons), just look at the production over the final 8 games:

  • Marshall – 47 receptions for 648 yards and 6 TD
  • Jeffrey – 51 receptions for 800 yards and 4 TD

With Marshall now 30 and Jeffrey entering his third season, look for a new #1 to emerge in Chicago. I’d much rather own Jeffrey for the coming year.

 

No discounts on the injured
Randall Cobb, who plays in an offense full of weapons, is currently the 10th receiver coming off the board. Percy Harvin, who never seems capable of staying healthy and is in what could be a run-centric offense, is the 18th. In both instances it feels like people are overpaying, so as of right now if you were hoping to get a discount based on missed time in 2013. forget it.

 

Michael Floyd feels like a bargain
I recently discussed how I felt Floyd could actually be the most productive receiver in the Arizona offense (click here to view). Clearly the drafting world doesn’t think so. I’m not saying to select Floyd ahead of Larry Fitzgerald, but his early ADP of 64.5 (Fitzgerald is at 36.0) screams of a steal. If he’s there in the late-5th/early 6th I will be selecting him every time.

 

Rookie Wide Receivers
Did Tavon Austin’s struggles dissuade people? Is it the early season pre-rankings? We will wait and see, but early on there has not been a run on rookie wide receivers:

  • Sammy Watkins – WR33
  • Mike Evans – WR37
  • Brandin Cooks – WR40
  • Kelvin Benjamin – WR45
  • Odell Beckham Jr. – WR52

There are risks involved, but at these prices they are going to be worth the gamble. That’s not to say that there isn’t value around them, like Cecil Shorts (WR41) or Hakeem Nicks (WR42) or Austin himself (WR48), but as a WR4 or WR5 on your team it’s likely worth it.

 

Again, these are just some of the early season ADP stories worth watching. We will continue to keep an eye on things, especially as more data becomes available and things become a little clearer. It’s never too early, though, just remember how dramatically things can change.

Sources – Fantasy Pros, ESPN

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