Hot Take: Marcus Stroman Lands In New York, So Should We Be Buying?


The question on the mind of Mets fans is what comes next?  The acquisition of Marcus Stroman is an interesting one, since it would appear that he’ll be a part of the rotation for 2020.  The question is will he be joined by Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, or will the latter be moved to help recoup some of the prospect depth they’ve jettisoned since the offseason?  Time will tell, but for right now let’s take a look at Stroman and his outlook now that he’s in the NL East.

First, let’s look at the numbers from this season:

6-11, 2.96 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.15 K/9, 2.52 BB/9

Stroman has always been a strong groundball pitcher, and while his groundball rate is “down” this season after being above 60% each of the previous four years no one is going to complain about a 56.3% mark.  Given the way home runs have been flying out of ballparks his 0.72 HR/9 is highly impressive and it’s possible it gets even better (HR/FB):

  • Home – 1.30
  • Road – 0.00

That’s right, all 10 of the home runs he’s allowed have come at home this season.  Getting him out of Toronto alone is going to help add to his appeal.  While he is never going to be an elite strikeout artist, it’s easy to argue that there’s a little bit more upside there as well considering his 9.8% SwStr%.  He’s also shown that upside in July, with an 8.10 K/9, and that mark would be enough.  Moving to the National League alone will likely provide a little bit of a boost, but the support of the metrics further helps.

It’s even more true given the solid control Stroman has shown throughout his career (2.52 BB/9).  That’s all three skills, which is exactly what we look for from a pitcher.

Stroman may never be an ace, as he lacks the upside of a strikeout per inning, but there’s an awful lot to like moving forward.  He appears to have taken a step forward in 2019 and the move to New York (and the NL) could help to push it even further. 

The Mets now could boast an impressive rotation both in 2019 and in 2020.  As we said before, though, the biggest question is what comes next (especially when it comes to the future of Noah Syndergaard).

Source – Fangraphs


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