OBP Risers: Why Cavan Biggio Is A Must Target For Those In OBP Formats (And Not In AVG Formats)

Cavan Biggio joined a Toronto infield full of second generation stars (along with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette), a group that could help lead the team back into the forefront of the AL East.  Biggio brings an intriguing blend of power and speed, with 16 HR and 14 SB over 430 PA in the Majors, but a .234 AVG generally brings concerns especially since the underlying indicate that he may not be able to improve the mark significantly:

• Strikeout Rate – 28.6%
• Flyball Rate – 47.0%
• Oppo% – 18.0%

The last two numbers indicate his BABIP (.309) may not get too much better (if at all), but is the strikeout rate believable?  He showed an elite approach in the Majors (8.7% SwStr%, 15.8% O-Swing%), though you could argue that he was perhaps a little bit too patient.  He played five months in the Majors, never posting a strikeout rate below 27.7%.  A little bit more aggressiveness could help, but it may not disappear.  When coupled with the other numbers a poor average is likely.

At the same time the approach led to an elite walk rate (16.5% in the Majors), something he showed at Double-A in ’18 (17.8%) and Triple-A prior to his recall (19.5%).  In OBP formats the ability to draw a walk significantly boosts his value.  Just look at where his AVG and OBP ranked among qualified second baseman in 2019 with at least 400 PA:

• Average – .234 (28th out of 30)
• OBP – .364 (4th out of 30)

With his power and speed he’s going to have value in any format, but he’s clearly more valuable in leagues that utilize OBP.  Now could you imagine if he hits .250-.260 with his ability to draw a walk?  He could be among the elite at his position.  At a deep position, with the potential to go 20/20 (or maybe even better), in OBP formats consider him a potential Top 5 option as soon as 2020.

Source – Fangraphs

Make sure to check out all of our 2020 preseason rankings: