Prospect Spotlight: Will The Newly Recalled Mauricio Dubon Be Able To Make An Instant Impact?

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When Mauricio Dubon was traded to the San Francisco Giants ahead of the Trade Deadline the assumption was that he’d immediately step into the role of starting second baseman.  It didn’t happen then, after Scooter Gennett was acquired not long after, but nearly a month later his time has finally come.

With Gennett officially being released and Dubon being recalled from Triple-A, fantasy owners will finally get a look at just what type of production he could bring.  Playing for two different Triple-A teams, it would appear that a five-category producer could be arriving:

.302 (152-504), 20 HR, 66 RBI, 82 R, 10 SB

The number that jumps out at you is the power, having never hit more than 8 HR in a season before (he has 46 career home runs).  There has been a significant jump in power in general at the Triple-A level this season and playing half his games in San Francisco isn’t going to do him any favors. 

Take this quote into consideration, courtesy of MLB.com:

He also has a good approach, and scouts project him as at least an average hitter. While he’s enjoyed an uptick in power as he’s grown stronger, Dubon is more likely to be a source of doubles and triples than home runs.”

So if we aren’t going to expect him to match this type of power, even at 25-years old (think of him as more of a 12-16 HR type hitter over a full season), will he be able to produce in other ways? 

It’s interesting that his approach was discussed as a positive, because when you look at the numbers that doesn’t appear to be the case:

  • Strike Rate – 12.6%
  • Walk Rate – 5.2%
  • SwStr% – 11.1%

There would be a risk that the strikeout rate rises closer to 20% in the Majors, and having had his 2018 season lost to a torn ACL he hasn’t shown the same stolen base ability in 2019 (he stole 38 bases in 2017).  None of this is to say that there isn’t upside in Dubon, but there also is a lot of risk that can’t be ignored.  He’s a much better bet for those looking long-term as opposed to for 2019, so keep that in mind.

Compared to other waiver wire candidates – We’d much rather look at players like Nick Solak and Jon Berti if you are focusing on this season

Sources – Fangraphs, MILB.com, MLB.com

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