Imminent Arrival: Projecting The 2017 Production For Rhys Hoskins Upon His Arrival

by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)

There has been a lot of speculation surrounding the Phillies’ first base, turned outfield, prospect and if the rumors are true he will finally reach the Majors any day. Speculation has been running rampant, and rightfully so, now the question is what should we expect upon his promotion? Obviously there will be the impulse to expect monster numbers, with dreams of the next great slugger dancing in our heads. Let’s try to be a little more objective than that, though, as we dive in and get to know him a little bit better.

Recent Statistics:

2016 (Double-A) – .281, 38 HR, 116 RBI, 95 R in 589 PA
2017 (Triple-A) – .280, 28 HR, 86 RBI, 76 R in 470 PA

The most impressive statistics may be the reduction in his strikeout rate, despite moving to a more advanced level, as he has seen it dip from 21.2% to 16.0%. Considering his highly impressive 6.4% SwStr% behind it, as well as his stellar eye at the plate (13.6% walk rate) there’s every reason to believe that he can continue posting a strong mark.

That’s not to say that he’s not going to see it spike, at least a little bit, potentially back into the 20% range. That said, even at Double-A in 2016 no one is going to be concerned about a 9.1% SwStr%. The upside and ability is there, especially over the long-term.

No one is also going to question the power, the concern is going to be if he gets too homer happy. He already appears to put a priority on hitting the ball in the air:

  • 2016 – 51.6%
  • 2017 – 48.6%

Over the past two seasons he’s posted HR/FB rates of 19.9% and 17.8%, respectively. While believable numbers, what is going to happen if he can’t quite maintain that pace? Or, worse yet, if he puts even more balls in the air as a way to compensate?

We are not saying that it will happen, but if it does it will obviously have a negative impact on his batting average. His solid marks have not come via inflated BABIP, and with his fly ball tendencies we wouldn’t expect the number to be much above .290.

His home rate has taken a small step back this year, averaging a HR once every 16.8 PA (as opposed to every 15.5 while at Double-A). A less hitter friendly home ballpark likely is a factor (he hit 25 of his 38 HR at home in ’16), but clearly he has the ability to hit it out anywhere. At the same time he may be more of a 25-28 HR hitter, even playing in Philadelphia, which will again play into the average

So what should we expect, assuming regular AB the rest of the season? As with any rookie there are going to be some highs and lows initially. The biggest issue could be with his average, though I wouldn’t necessarily expect a world beater from the power department either. As for maybe a conservative projection:

.255, 7 HR, 25 RBI

Those are usable numbers, for sure, but don’t expect an Aaron Judge or Cody Belinger like impact.  If you get something close consider it a bonus.

Sources – Fangraphs, MILB.com

Make sure to check out our Mid-Season Top 50 Prospects by clicking here!

4 comments

  1. jeff says:

    Looking ahead to 2018, what do you see from this group of rookies? Trying to target players now that I can acquire at a lower price than in the off-season. How would you rank these guys for 2018 and beyond?

    -Hoskins – Great write up on him. Do you think he’s starting next year? His ML #’s better than Bellinger (but he is older). See him breaking out next year, especially with that home park?

    -Smith – Elite bat in ML and developing power. He’s young, does power keep showing? What do you see him looking like next year? Assume he starts?

    -Brinson – Assume MIL try’s to find a way to start him full-time next year? .250 with 15-20 HR/SB next year with room for growth?

    -Acuna – Young, but a beast at every level. Will ATL move him up to majors? Or will they be a bit more cautious and try to gain an extra year of control?

    -McMahon – Love what he’s doing in minors, but will he have a chance to start next year?

    -Senzel – Thought there was a chance at callup this year, but maybe just a cup of coffee. Any chance he’s starting in CIN next year? Could see him coming up later in the year possibly vs start of the year?

    • Rotoprofessor says:

      Hoskins – He should be starting, but again the average is going to be somewhat down. I’m thinking a .260 hitter with power

      Smith – He could be similar to Josh Bell, tapping into his power in MLB. IF that does happen, he could be a Top 12-15 option

      Brinson – Sounds about right, and yes he should be a starter

      Acuna – I’d expect him up some time in ’18. Just doesn’t make sense to use a 40-man roster spot on him now.

      McMahon – Someone is going to get deal to free up PT. If it’s McMahon or LeMahieu, time will tell

      Senzel – At some point in ’18, I’d expect him to be the starter

      • jeff says:

        Thanks for the thoughts! Good stuff.

        What do you think about Calhoun? Where would be fit in with the rest of these guys?

        • Rotoprofessor says:

          He’s behind them, with the question remaining where he’s going to play. Once the position is sorted out we’ll be able to get a better idea

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