Dahl has long been a highly hyped prospect, though lack of playing time and injuries have generally been deemed the reason for his disappointing performances. He appears to be putting that behind him, settling into the middle of the Rockies’ lineup and producing big numbers. At the same time, when you start to dissect the underlying metrics the concern about him maintaining this type of performance grows:
- BABIP – .439
- SwStr% – 15.6%
- O-Swing% – 40.6%
So he’s taking a poor approach, something that has consistently plagued him in the Majors (15.3% career SwStr%, 38.6% career O-Swing%), and is also benefiting from a lot of luck. Considering how consistently he chases outside the strike zone and his underwhelming 34.2% Hard%, is there any reason to believe that he can come close to maintaining his current BABIP?
How about the risk of his strikeout rising significantly, 26.9% currently, especially with his best Whiff% being 15.15% against offspeed pitches? Throw in a regression in his fly ball rate (29.9%), something that has plagued him since May 1 (he was at 34.0% in April), throwing his power into a little bit of question and things all seem to slant to the wrong direction.
With the performance and the past hype this is the perfect storm for a sell high candidate. While it would be easy to buy into Dahl, cash in now before it’s too late.
Verdict – Sell High
Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball