Trying to decide who you should start or sit this week? Let’s take a look at a few potential decisions owners have and try to sort through them:
Start – Jameis Winston – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. ARI)
It wasn’t long ago that Winston was a turnover machine, throwing 5 INT against the Panthers. He followed that up with another 2 INT, further bringing question to his upside, though over his past three games the passing game has also shown just how productive it could be:
- vs. Carolina – 400 yards, 1 TD, 5 INT
- at Tennessee – 301 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT
- at Seattle – 335 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT
There’s every reason to think that they will continue to roll this week as well, taking on an Arizona defense that’s allowed the most passing yards (2,689) and TD (24), while getting just 2 INT. Throw in the third most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks (195), another area Winston can contribute, and what’s not to like?
There are questions and concerns, but far too much upside.
Sit – Baker Mayfield – Cleveland Browns (vs. BUF)
The Browns offense has been an utter disappointment this season. After “winning” the offseason they simply haven’t figured it out, and Mayfield has been front and center in the issues. He’s thrown for 7 TD on the season, and doesn’t have more than 1 TD in a game, while throwing 12 INT.
The Bills have allowed the fourth fewest points per week to opposing quarterbacks, including just 5 TD (the only team to allow fewer is the New England Patriots, with 3 TD allowed). The return of Kareem Hunt is going to give the offense a new dynamic, but this is hardly a “get right” spot. The Browns need to figure it out, and maybe they will, but this isn’t the spot to bet on it happening.
Additional Quarterbacks To Start:
- Kyler Murray (ARI at TB) – Murray is one of the best options in the league this week, taking on a Tampa Bay defense that’s allowed the fourth most points per week to opposing quarterbacks. Over the past four weeks they’ve allowed 10 TD vs. 0 INT. Murray is coming off an impressive performance against the 49ers (241 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT) and has gone five straight without throwing an interception.
- Jimmy Garoppolo (SF vs. Sea) – Given all of the bye weeks Garoppolo belongs on the map (though he isn’t a must start). San Francisco remains a run first offense, but the addition of Emmanuel Sanders has immediately helped Garoppolo (317 yards, 4 TD last week against the Cardinals) and Seattle isn’t the same defense as it once was. It’s enough that if you find yourself short due to injuries or the bye weeks, he’s a good target to scoop up and utilize.
Another Quarterback to Sit:
- Matthew Stafford (DET at CHI) – Stafford has been rolling, with 10 TD vs. 1 INT and at least 342 yards in three straight games. That makes sitting him a difficult thought, especially given the bye weeks. However let’s not forget that the last two of those performances came against the Vikings and Giants, two of the worst passing defenses in the league. Chicago is a far different story, having allowed 8 passing TD all season. It’s not impossible to use him, but it wouldn’t be our preference.
Start – Greg Olsen – Carolina Panthers (at GB)
Olsen hasn’t topped 52 yards in four straight games while scoring a touchdown in just one of the seven games he’s played. Why would he be a recommended option then? Injuries, bye weeks and a general lack of talent has made the tight end rankings extremely top heavy, and if you are lacking one of the elite you are sent scrambling. The Packers have become a good defense to try and target, having allowed the eighth most points per week to opposing tight ends. Over the past three weeks they’ve been even worse:
- Week 7 (vs. OAK) – 11 receptions, 172 yards, 3 TD
- Week 8 (at KC) – 4 receptions, 63 yards, 1 TD
- Week 9 (at LAC) – 7 receptions, 84 yards
Sit – Jimmy Graham – Green Bay Packers (vs. CAR)
The Panthers have allowed the sixth fewest points per week to opposing tight ends, which alone casts some doubt onto the upside of Graham. The return of Davante Adams and the emergence of a few other pass catching options also limit the upside, as there is no guarantee the targets will be there.
As it is Graham has only been targeted more than 5 times once this season, and he’s been at 20 yards or fewer in three of his past four games. What about that makes you think he’s a good gamble to take?
Another Tight End To Start:
- Gerald Everett (LAR at PIT) – Everett has had some big days this season, including being targeted at least 10 times twice in his past four games (both of those yielded 50+ yard performances, including a 136 yard outburst). Against a Pittsburgh defense that’s among the ten worst at stopping tight ends this season, and with the lack of options, that creates a good opportunity.
Another Tight End to Sit:
- Jacob Hollister (SEA at SF) – We know the Seattle offense can feature the tight end (remember Will Dissly) and Hollister is coming off an impressive performance as he scored 2 TD. Of course that came against Tampa Bay, one of the worst defenses against opposing tight ends. The 49ers have been the best this season, allowing just 165 yards and 1 TD, making Hollister impossible to trust.
Sources – ESPN, NFL.com
Make sure to check out all of our Week 10 rankings: