Obviously when we change the format of our leagues the rankings need to be altered. One of the popular changes going to day is the move away from AVG and towards OBP as a league category. So who rises and who falls?
As with AVG formats, here are a few things to remember as you review the rankings (and if you want to see even deeper rankings, make sure to order our 2019 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide that includes a Top 30 for OBP formats, by clicking here):
- A player being ranked #3 doesn’t mean you should draft him in that spot. In most cases you shouldn’t have to, it just shows the potential value that he holds.
- These rankings are based on our projections and expected production for 2019.
Who are the names we should trust? Who should be ignored? Let’s dive in and take a look:
- Francisco Lindor – Cleveland Indians
- Trea Turner – Washington Nationals
- Manny Machado – Free Agent
- Alex Bregman – Houston Astros
- Trevor Story – Colorado Rockies
- Carlos Correa – Houston Astros
- Xander Bogaerts – Boston Red Sox
- Javier Baez – Chicago Cubs
- Gleyber Torres – New York Yankees
- Corey Seager – Los Angeles Dodgers
- Adalberto Mondesi – Kansas City Royals
- Marcus Semien – Oakland A’s
- Jose Peraza – Cincinnati Reds
- Jurickson Profar – Texas Rangers
- Eduardo Escobar – Arizona Diamondbacks
- Obviously the injury clouds the outlook for Francisco Lindor, at least a little bit, but not enough to knock him from the top spot on our rankings. It’s possible he only misses a week or two, and maybe he doesn’t miss any time at all. We all know when healthy he’s among the elite players in the game, so unless we learn that the injury is worse than initially expected continue to view him as a first round talent.
- We have concerns about Alex Bregman, with the potential for him becoming too focused on his power. In the second half he was far too pull heavy (52.3% Pull%), popping the ball up (15.3%) and also putting too many balls in the air (44.3% fly ball rate). However there’s no questioning his approach, and a 13.6% walk rate helps to overcome those concerns when it comes to OBP formats. Even if he was to “struggle” and hit .260ish, he should be able to carry a .350+ OBP and that’s going to make him one of the better options in the league.
- Speed is down across the game, but that doesn’t stop Jose Peraza from dropping a few spots with the change to OBP. He simply doesn’t draw enough walks, with a career 3.9% walk rate, thanks to continually chasing outside the strike zone (35.4% career O-Swing%). In other words his average is going to be his OBP and that puts him at a disadvantage against the rest of the field.
- Marcus Semien is often an overlooked option, but he continues to combine some power and speed (15 HR/14 SB over 703 PA in ’18). While an 8.1% career walk rate isn’t going to blow you away and give him a significant OBP advantage, he controls the strike zone well (8.3% SwStr%, 26.2% O-Swing%) and should see an improvement in his average. With some upside (think .330 OBP) with the other production there’s a lot to like.
Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball