Under the Radar Stolen Base Leaders: Is There Value For 2021 & Beyond?

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Of the 310 players with at least 100 PA last season there were only 13 who stole at least 10 bases. Some of the names we’d expect, like Adalberto Mondesi (24), Trea Turner (12) and Whit Merrifield (12), but there were two names who likely surprise you. Let’s take a look and see if they could be under-the-radar options heading into 2021:

Dylan Moore – 12 SB

Moore did steal 42 bases in the minor leagues back in 2016, but since then he’s been more of a 20-25 SB guy. That’s not a bad number, but 12 SB over 38 games puts him on an elite pace.

Over the past two seasons in the Majors (441 AB) he’s posted an impressive 17 HR and 23 SB, to go along with a .255 AVG. While strikeouts have been an issue, his 10.7% SwStr% and 27.0% O-Swing% showed a solid command of the strike zone. Couple that with a willingness to use the entire field (25.5% Oppo%) and a decent enough Hard% (36.2%), and he should be able to maintain or improve upon his .314 BABIP.

Maybe he doesn’t maintain quite this type of pace (21.6% HR/FB), but he would appear to be a 15/15 type player. Maybe that’s not elite, but as a back of the roster option? As long as he’s a regular, he’s going to hold under-the-radar value worth targeting.

Roman Quinn – 12 SB

The fact that Quinn can run isn’t a surprise, as he routinely swiped 30+ bases in the minor leagues. His problems in recent years has been an inability hit for a strong average as well as an inability to stay on the field. Just look at the PA, between the Majors and Minors over the past few years:

  • 2017 – 197
  • 2018 – 260
  • 2019 – 178
  • 2020 – 116

If you aren’t on the field you can’t steal bases, and it’s even worse when you are hitting .213. In 2020 he posted a 14.3% SwStr%, and he owns a 28.2% strikeout rate over his MLB career. Couple that with a poor 23.8% Hard%, showing he’s not hitting the ball with any authority, and it’s hard to get excited.

If he figures something out and finds a way to get on base then his speed will hold value, but a .306 OBP just doesn’t cut it. He’s not going to play everyday when he’s actually healthy, so he’s not a player to be targeting.

Source – Fangraphs

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