There’s been quite a stir caused by the recent explosion of Aristides Aquino, armed with a new style at the dish, he’s hit .438 with 2 HR, 5 RBI and 5 R in a mere 17 PA in the Majors this season. Obviously it’s impossible to draw any definitive conclusions on such a small sample, though that hasn’t stopped fantasy owners from jumping on board the hype train.
Of course we have more data to work with, as he was hitting .299 with 28 HR over 323 PA at Triple-A. Given those numbers, coupled with his instant impact in the Majors, why wouldn’t we be all in?
It’s obvious that the strongest skill has been his power, though could the 25-year old right-hander see things slow down? Let’s not ignore that he had just 14 additional extra base hits at Triple-A (13 doubles and 1 triple), and seeing some of those home runs fall short of the wall wouldn’t be shocking (he was carrying a 30.1% HR/FB while at Triple-A).
That alone is going to give you concern, especially given his pedigree (he had never hit more than 23 HR in a season), but it’s not the only red flag. There’s been significant swing and miss to his game, regardless of the level he’s played this season (SwStr%):
- Triple-A – 17.0%
- Majors – 17.2%
That’s a scary number, because if he isn’t making contact he not only isn’t going to be able to continue hitting home runs but the average is also going to plummet. Sure a .321 BABIP at Triple-A isn’t unreasonable, but it’s easy to envision a lower mark and his 25.1% strikeout will likely rise. Is a .300 BABIP and a 30+% strikeout rate unreasonable expectations? Even with the power his average could be closer to .250, but if the home runs regress as well the results could be unsightly.
It’s easy to get excited when you see the gaudy home run totals and the immediate impact he’s made for Cincinnati. That said it’s hardly a given that he continues to produce at anything close to this pace. In deeper formats is he worth grabbing to see if you can at least catch lightning in a bottle? Sure, but in shallower formats it’s hard to buy into.
Fantasy Waiver Wire Guidelines:
- 10 Team League – Monitor, but not must add
- 12 Team League – Worth add in those that use five-outfielders
- 14+ Team League – Worthy Add
- NL-Only League – Worthy Add
- Keeper/Dynasty – Worthy add
Sources – MILB.com, Fangraphs