Yesterday the A’s summoned Seth Brown from Triple-A, where he had been enjoying something of a breakout campaign. We say “something” because it’s not like Brown hadn’t had success in the past (30 HR at High-A in ’17, for instance), but even with the home run totals inflated at Triple-A his numbers stood out:
.297 (134-451), 37 HR, 104 RBI, 101 R, 8 SB
Considering the power he’s shown in the past (even when he hit 14 HR in ’18 it’s important to note that he added 38 doubles) it’s impossible to discount that mark. The question is going to be whether or not he’s going to be plagued by a potentially poor approach.
Just look at the strikeout and walk rates over the past few years:
- 2017 – 25.2% // 9.7%
- 2018 – 25.6% // 8.5%
- 2019 – 25.4% // 7.6%
So while the strikeout rate has been consistent the walk rate has slowly declined against more advanced pitching. That’s obviously a concern, and with a 12.9% SwStr% at Triple-A this year it’s easy to envision the strikeout rate taking a significant step up in the Majors.
Then we also can’t ignore the fact that he appears to be taking a home run-centric approach. This year he posted a 0.49 GO/AO, indicating a significant fly ball approach at the plate. While that helps aid in a bloated home run total, it makes it harder to believe in his .330 BABIP that helped lead to his near .300 average.
With the risk of his strikeouts rising and his luck regressing, he would appear to profile much closer to a .250 hitter (or worse). Throw in the potential for his power to slow, at least a little bit, as well as the potential that he sits against southpaws and the risk likely outweighs the potential reward.
Fantasy Waiver Wire Guidelines:
- 10 Team League – Don’t Add
- 12 Team League – Don’t Add
- 14+ Team League – Potential Streaming Option If Hot
- AL-Only League – Worth The Gamble
- Keeper/Dynasty – Format Dependent
Sources – Fangraphs, MILB.com